Notes
Essays and short notes on the macro board: what's shifting, what confirms a thesis, and what would flip it.
Government bonds can produce large gains when yields fall—and painful losses when they rise. Here is how bond prices, Treasury yields, and TLT actually work.
Inflation and deflation damage the economy in different ways. Learn which is usually more dangerous, how one can lead to the other, and what signals matter most.
The S&P 500 divided by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has returned to its historical middle. Here is what the ratio shows, what it misses, and what it may say about the next macro phase.
Stock market crashes are rarely caused by one headline. They happen when leverage, concentration, weak liquidity, and forced selling create a feedback loop.
The AI bubble is not one single bet. It spans stocks, private funding, data centers, chips, debt, and expectations about future profits.